Winter 2025/2026 Final Outlook: A Colder Season Than Expected
The approaching Winter 2025/2026 is forecasted to be colder than initially predicted across the United States, Canada, and Europe. Recent models suggest that early December may bring widespread cold and snow, signaling a more intense start to the season.
Key Atmospheric Drivers
Two main climatic factors are expected to shape this winter: a weak La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean and a potential disruption of the Polar Vortex. Their combined influence could result in prolonged cold spells early in the season.
“Long-range indications suggest the potential for cold events to persist into January, following a Stratospheric Warming event and the collapse of the Polar Vortex.”
The Role of La Niña
In the Pacific, the ENSO region (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) alternates between warm and cold phases every one to three years. Current oceanic data from the OSTIA dataset reveal noticeable cold anomalies in this area, confirming an active La Niña phase of weak to moderate intensity.
Expected Weather Pattern
The weak La Niña is likely to guide jet stream patterns and promote cooler, stormier conditions across North America and parts of Europe. The anticipated Polar Vortex disruption could further enhance cold outbreaks across the Northern Hemisphere in early winter.
Summary of Impacts
- Early arrival of cold and snow in December.
- Persistent cold into January due to Polar Vortex instability.
- Influence of La Niña leading to variable temperature and storm patterns.
Author’s Summary: Forecast models point to a colder-than-average Winter 2025/2026, driven by a weak La Niña and a disrupted Polar Vortex influencing conditions across the Northern Hemisphere.